Dental-services inflation stays above 4%, financing rates remain elevated, and case acceptance or new-patient waits weaken.
CONSUMER · DEVELOPING RISK
Consumer affordability pressure
Dental prices accelerated while household credit remained expensive; improving income and slightly better aggregate delinquency keep this from being a one-way signal.
↗ acceleratingNext 12 monthsAudited Aug 28, 2026
ANALYST CONFIDENCE67%
Prior 63% ↑ 4 points
DATED EVIDENCE CHECKPOINTS
The signal is accelerating.
What 67% means: Analyst confidence that affordability will materially constrain elective orthodontic conversion over the next 12 months—not a measured 67% decline in demand.
58%Q2 25
61%Q4 25
63%Q1 26
63%Q2 26
67%Jul 26
Audit note: Direction is supported, but the evidence is mixed. Dental-services CPI accelerated to 5.1% year over year in July; Q2 household delinquency improved slightly and July disposable income rose. The score was therefore raised modestly, not by the previously displayed 11 points.
THE THESIS
Why this matters to orthodontists
Practices with a high adult-start or patient-financing mix face above-average conversion risk when dental prices rise faster than broad medical services and borrowing remains costly.
Dental inflation normalizes, real disposable income keeps improving, and financed case acceptance strengthens.