Two consecutive quarters of greater than 5% North American shipment growth plus improving adult case conversion.
DEMAND · MONITOR
U.S. adult aligner demand
Align reported strong global growth but only stable North American performance in both Q1 and Q2 2026. Global shipments should not be presented as proof of accelerating U.S. adult demand.
→ stableNext 8 quartersAudited Aug 28, 2026
ANALYST CONFIDENCE54%
Prior 54% → 0 points
DATED EVIDENCE CHECKPOINTS
The signal is stable.
What 54% means: Analyst confidence that U.S. adult aligner starts grow over the next eight quarters—not Align’s reported global shipment growth rate.
48%Q2 25
48%Q3 25
50%Q4 25
54%Q1 26
54%Q2 26
Audit note: The earlier slowing label was plausible after weak 2025 conversion, but its seven-point weekly history was not sourced. The revised series uses disclosed quarterly company results and holds the current direction at stable.
THE THESIS
Why this matters to orthodontists
U.S. adult demand can expand, but near-term growth remains sensitive to financing and case conversion; international volume is a poor proxy for U.S. starts.
North American contraction persists even as household affordability improves.